Russia have known the horrors of war, as the collosal death and destruction wrought on her during WWII by the invading Nazi Germany remain solidly embedded in the Russians collective national psyche, Russia have stared into the abyss and vowed “never again”. The harrowing war raging in Ukraine is a struggle with a cataclysmic effect that will alter the post WWll ruling order.
In Ukraine the combine West led by the US wants to fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian, an extension of the great game, while Russia has throw down the guantlet come what may. For Russia the best form of defense is to attack.
But for the US/NATO the idea is simple; draw Russia into a quagmire in Ukraine while screaming “Russia aggression”, isolate Russia in the world public opinion, decouple Russia-EU economy and bring Moscow to her knees through sanctions. The end game is to nip in the bud the development of any alliance between the EU(Germany) and Russia, thereby cut off the land bridge for future Eurasia alliance. Disciples of Zbigniew Brzezinski are back in the driver seat in Washington, America has reinvented Mackinder theory in the heart of Europe.
When the US became the sole superpower after the fall of the USSR, between 1991-2003 successive America administrations went on rampage to remake the world in her image under the pretext of spreading democracy, the US that had promised Russia that NATO will never extend to Eastern Europe renegade on her words, decimated Yugoslavia into statelets through brutal war without the UN approval and later absorbed some of the emergent states into NATO as America tried to surround Russia on all sides.
To paraphrase Hassan Nasrallah, in the early 2000s when the world believed America was at the zenith of her power the sage leader of Iran Imam Khamenei, posited that America’s power have started to decline due to symptomatic imperial overreach.
Fast forward to the present, America has lost her military edge vis her formidable opponents through corruption and imperial overstretch but it retain much of her economic and political clout. Nevertheless Russia, China, Iran and few other sovereign nations have now said “enough”! The world in which the US posses the monopoly of force on the international arena is long gone, a reality the US must come to term with vis respecting national security space and interest of other sovereign nations. This is anathema to America’s exceptionalism.
Ukraine is a pawn in this no hold bar contest against Russia and China, a bitter reality. A lot has been said about Russia taking the bait by invading Ukraine, but for Russia Kiev has become a viper’s nest, an existential threat that must be dealt with, as Vladimir Putin said “you cannot have a world without Russia”. So the only thing that can pacify the Russia bear is the recognition of her security needs, an absolute non starter for the US/NATO.
Though it is too early but there are no gainsaying that Russia will win this battle against a divided Ukraine, the danger however lies in the days ahead. It is obvious America has achieved her objectives for now, so how does Russia intend to pacify Ukraine after the war? Will Russia occupy Kiev thereby give rise to local resistance or will it withdraw to create a buffer zone at the newly independent republics of LDNR? How will Moscow manage the PR damage incurred from this invasion and can her economy withstand the heat? I don’t think we will have to wait long to find out.
This is a battle between war which won’t spiral to WWIIl or nuclear holocaust yet, as the decision makers among the adversaries are rational players not hallucinating for the apocalypse and surely the post coronavirus world economy cannot survive such an outcome. Whatever the outcome of this round however, one thing is obvious; it is the birth of a new cold war, the dawn of a new world order.
P.S: Putin’s threat to go nuclear is a deterrence against NATO troops intervention to avoid some of the scenarios I mentioned above as Ukraine has called for a negotiated settlement.
